History Strategy

2010-03-31T11:06:00.003-05:00

Iran atomic potential xyz test bomb

2009-10-28T21:38:00.002-05:00

2009-06-18T00:19:00.003-05:00

More peace marches check out payvand news for the latest

This is Payvand news report:
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Photos and Report: Today I Felt Proud to be an Iranian - Today, after a long time I felt truly proud to be an Iranian. I was at yet another peaceful demonstration at Tehran's 7th Tir Square which lasted two and half hours. Again I witnessed thousands of Iranians calmly, peacefully and quietly walking together from 7th Tir Square along the path of Karimkhan-Zand to Kargar Avenue and then ending at Enghelab Square around 7:30 as many people wanted to leave before it got dark! -Syma Sayyah, Tehran 6/17/09

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My thoughts:
It looks like Mousavi is trying to get organized and still getting a lot of energy from the masses check out the link for all the pictures

2009-06-15T23:34:00.002-05:00

I disagree with Bulliet:

Bloomberg news
relevant snippet:

Bulliet predicted that the Guardian Council, the election’s supervisory body, with the authority to review the results, will still endorse the outcome within the next week.

Repercussions Predicted

If the protests continue after then, “Khamenei could respond to street unrest by declaring martial law and imposing curfews,” he said.
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The problem is when will the people stop and what happens in the interim, will the army also rise up?

How many people continue to protest?

If the opposition groups make a concerted effort, break through to the clerics (Khameini) then there is a chance a real revolution will happen.

2009-06-14T16:23:00.002-05:00

Payvand has an excellent news report from inside Tehran:

It is 4:30pm on Saturday. I knew that something was going to happen. My generation was responsible for the revolution 30 years ago. My office is near ValiAsr near the ministry of interior which is responsible for the elections. At around 4:30pm I noted people walking all in one way. I slowly walked to Vali Asr street. I saw the clashes there. One man with a broken nose bone below eyebrows, and many people who were throwing the ValiAsr heavy sidewalk stones towards the anti riot police line. The police marched forward and the people would all run back and then they stopped and walked back towards the police and throw their heavy stones. The people were shouting death to the dictator. Tear gas was used. I decided to walk back. As I was slowly retreating with the crowd one tear gas charge fell next to my feet. All plastic garbage cans were put on fire by the people in the middle of the street. I had never seen or experienced tear gas. I was studying in US when the revolution happened. I did not breath and kept walking. In a few seconds my face was full of sweat and I could not see and I could not breath. I felt I would lose my conscience and fall down. I tried to go inside a building for help but the door was closed. I walked and went into a home with an open door. There were a few others like me too. The lady in the home told us all to persevere. I asked her to let me wash my face. She said no do not do that. Instead she burned a newspaper near my face. I stayed there for a few minutes and walked back to my office.
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There are definite riot situations all day ... read the whole report.

2009-06-14T16:09:00.003-05:00

Payvand.com

pictures of riots in Tehran:

2009-06-14T15:29:00.002-05:00

Riots in Tehran:

Check out Tehran Live.org

Due to the 'election' of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

What does this mean? without a focused political force behind these massive riots, nothing.

In the next few days we have to see if a political force comes out of hiding and presents their will to the ruling theocracy.

2009-06-04T22:12:00.004-05:00

My initial thoughts of Obama's Cairo peace overture to the Israeli-Palestinian question in which Iran has a definite hand in:

There is no middle ground - you can't meet in the middle when one side wants to grow(Israel) like any other country. And the other side wants that same piece of land without interference.

The Israelis and Palestinians want the same piece of land, only one entity can have it.

Unless they can do a time-share (joking here) there is no middle ground.

The next Arab-Israeli war will decide this.

And it very easily can draw in the rest of the world. As I said before WW(insert number here) has started with the Iranian-Hamas-Hezbollah attacking Israel.

This is a very drawn out prequel/setup.

Just like WW2 started in China/Japan and Germany taking Austria, this conflict has a long set up time.

The difference is that this time around the technology is more lethal and with longer ranges.

Maybe Iran is just waiting for a sufficient stockpile of missiles.

2009-04-09T23:03:00.001-05:00

Things did not really change with Obama's new overtures:

"Death to Obama Chants"

A gathering of University of Tehran students minutes ago began forming a chain of human organizers opposite the former Nest of American spies.

A political correspondent of Fars News reported a group of students from University of Tehran student organizations including Students of the Islamic World, the Office of Strengthening Solidarity, Baseej students and other student organizations attended facing the former nest of American spies, to honor thirty years since breaking off diplomatic relations with the imperialistic U.S. government.

Gathered students placed caricatures of the American president on the wall of the spy’s nest and shouted slogans: “Death to Obama” and “Death to U.S. Change.” The protests connect to the biased politics the Americans have shown against Iran.

2009-04-09T22:48:00.008-05:00

This is an interesting article in the Politico

Many years ago I loved the "War Games" movie. It showed a military with the forethought to make simulations that would eventually decide that MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) is not actually a valid strategy to lead your country.

But what we have to ask ourselves are we in that kind of a scenario these days?

The latest war game scenario by the Pentagon is to decide if economic moves can set the US off balance. And the most interesting item is that if you put two and two together... while the Chinese and Russians are offsetting the US in the economic arena, the Iran and North Korean nuclear ambitions can add to the uncertainty and increase the economic and strategic uncertainty while fulfilling the respective countries goals (what if they were working in concert?)

Iran and China set $200B in trade

Iran and China

2009-04-09T22:38:00.002-05:00

If you give up your nukes will that make all the other entities give up theirs?

To answer that question one must figure out what it actually means to have nukes.

What does it mean to have a nuclear weapon? It means that with one strike you can wipe out a city. Or threaten to wipe out a city. This is too much of a narcotic for a regime that imbibes in power.

Iran has shown that they are willing to repress civil rights in the name of power for their religious state.

In fact it is in line with their religious beliefs to keep a super weapon as a nuke rather than give it up in an ideal world where super weapons are all removed from the power equation.

2009-04-09T22:34:00.003-05:00

The last few weeks have been filled with Obama making overtures to Iran, mostly about talking some more... while Iran keeps saying they are making progress on the nuclear front.

Where will this lead? what real options are in Obama quiver?

Can Obama force Iran into giving up their nukes as he is wishing to de nuclearize the world? By leading with his example?

Obama wants world without nukes!

2009-03-13T18:34:00.002-05:00

US Jet shoots down Iranian Drone

Interesting development - I thought Obama is creating a new dialogue with Iran???

2009-03-12T21:31:00.003-05:00

Interesting:

Destroyers sent to South China Sea:

US has what is likely a surveillance vessel in the South China Sea which has been shadowed by the Chinese fleet. And in the last couple of days they almost connected (or rather harassed).

You can see from the map that south china sea is south and west of hong kong and actually next to Viet Nam.

2009-03-01T21:37:00.002-06:00

Obama has a decision to make: Iran has enough material to make a nuclear bomb

Is it possible that the Obama administration will make a statement in public about the obvious saber rattling that Iran has exhibited in the last few days (3/1/09)?

What are Obamas choices?

1. Do nothing (most likely)
2. investigate military options - not likely
3. "talk" to Iran, and tell them not to investigate nuclear weapons.

I think that the foreign affairs are definitely a potential minefield for Obama.

2009-01-07T20:29:00.003-06:00

Terror weapons generally do not work, in fact they crystallize opposition. It did not work for Hitler against Britain in WW2. Killed many civilians, but the civilian population only worked together to clean the debris, and steeled themselves to the next attack.

When has terror worked?

I want someone to give me an example in history when it has worked? Without military successes

2009-01-07T20:26:00.001-06:00

Iran Focus article about Monkeys taken to Iran - for potential germ warfare experiments?

2009-01-07T20:14:00.002-06:00

World War IV has started...

Battles in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon(to come), Somalia ...

All we need is South America and Europe to encompass the world.

Homemade rockets built by Hamas.

How is it that Hamas can't hit Israeli soldiers? All they want is to use the rockets as a terror weapon, just like the German use of the V-1 and V-2 to terrorize The British.

2008-11-11T19:11:00.002-06:00

Reuters reports on a new Iranian test firing of a missile.

In the article the reporter is referring to the previous "9" missile test firings.

Where the 9 missiles were clearly invalidated by bloggers, to show that the nine were actually 3 missiles photoshopped several times. (may have been just two missiles).

This kind of muscle flexing is only to mark their territory for Obama's benefit.

It will be interesting what other moves Iran will do as Obama gets closer to actually stepping into the seat of power.

2008-11-11T04:51:00.003-06:00

Here is a map from Answers.com of "Eastern Prussia" in 14th century, notice the region names and if you scroll down you will see the Soviet/Russian renamed all the cities, so as to take a historical precedence away from the older Germanic region.

2008-11-10T20:58:00.004-06:00

Guess where the next crisis is?

Did you guess Kaliningrad?

It is the old East Prussia, where Koenigsberg was, the Soviet Union changed its name, and kept it even after the soviet bloc countries tried to assert themselves.

Then after Soviet Union became Russia it decided to keep the "enclave", which is basically a large military base a few hundred miles from Berlin, a thousand or so from London and Paris.

This short range allows short range missiles to hit any targets in a very short time, minutes

2008-11-10T05:48:00.002-06:00

Headlines from Arab Press: Tishreen
Tishreen (SYRIA): Assad: American Aggression on Syria Confirms Danger of U.S. Presence in Region – Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told a conference of Arab parliaments in Damascus Sunday that the latest U.S. aggression on Syria constitutes a constant source of threat to Iraq's neighbors and a source of instability to the region. He added that the Iraq-U.S. security accord is aimed at turning Iraq into a base to strike at neighboring countries and called for ending the occupation of Iraq as soon as possible to ensure Iraq's independence and the region's stability.

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I doubt Assad has the regions stability in mind, he wants to be able to influence Iraq, with Al-Quida if necessary.

The US presence constitutes a threat to Syrian military potential.

2008-11-10T05:46:00.001-06:00

Iraq orders planes, helos from US and France.

The order of 36 F-16 Fighting Falcons, 24 AT-6B Light Attack Aircraft Trainers and a variety of attack and reconnaissance helicopters will go toward plans to develop 10 air force bases with 6,000 crewmen by 2011.

Here is another interesting snippet by Iraq's emerging military:

Samer Abid al-Wahaab, a Defense Ministry spokesman, said at the time that air power was integral to Iraq's security objectives.

"Iraq faces multiple challenges: We need to control our open borders and defend against external aggression, while our counterparts must maintain internal security and overall law and order," he said.

2008-10-08T02:30:00.002-05:00

Barack Obama keeps referring to the "real" leader of Iran without actually naming him:

Foreign Affairs article by Akbar Ganji.

Who happens to be an Iranian journalist which has had his runins with the current regime.

Here is a good snippet:

The Iranian constitution endows the supreme leader with tremendous authority over all major state institutions, and Khamenei, who has held the post since 1989, has found many other ways to further increase his influence. Formally or not, the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government all operate under the absolute sovereignty of the supreme leader; Khamenei is the head of state, the commander in chief, and the top ideologue. He also reaches into economic, religious, and cultural affairs through various government councils and organs of repression, such as the Revolutionary Guards, whose commander he himself appoints.

2008-10-06T22:48:00.004-05:00

Presidential debate about Afghanistan and drug trafficking...

Here is an AL-Jazeera story about drug trafficking in Afghanistan:

Al Jazeera: This year poppy cultivation has decreased for the first time. Yet, the success is limited to some areas of the country and other areas, such as the south, show no progress. What are the reasons for the success in some areas and the lack of it in others?

Khodaidad: There are lots of difficulties in counter-narcotics issues in Afghanistan, particularly in eradication and law enforcement issues. It is not possible for Afghanistan to solve this drug problem by itself.

General Khodaidad, the minister of counter-narcotics is praised in this article.

But Afghanistan has an uphill battle to climb.

And it is in the US interest to solve this problem, as a lot of money goes to anti-Afghanistan/anti-US forces.

Why not help the Afghanis help themselves?

How does that go??feed a man a fish feed him once, teach him how to fish, feed him for life :)

2008-09-08T23:30:00.002-05:00

US Hits inside Pakistan (Long War Journal)

The US has increased its attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan against AQ.

But this is due to AQ becoming more successful in hitting targets inside Afghanistan.

AQ is also increasing its tempo of actions around the world: Philippines, Somalia, and anywhere they can get a foothold.

While this is going on, Iran, Venezuela, China and Russia are trying to influence their own areas to gain advantages where possible.

2008-09-01T16:12:00.002-05:00

Palestinian Authority is liable for $114 million dollars?

Jerusalem District Court Judge Aharon Farkash ruled on Monday that it was possible to implement a 2004 US court ruling, according to which the Palestinian Authority must pay compensations of more than $116 million to terror victims' families.

From Jerusalem Post

This means that Israel is striking back at the PA in another heretofore uncreated avenue.

Interesting potential ... but this is why most terrorist organizations would rather be anonymous, until they want to get credit for the hit.

2008-09-01T14:43:00.003-05:00

Iranian group hezbollah also has "collateral" damage:

The Hezbollah Brigades operatives were captured in New Baghdad after Coalition forces received "sensitive intelligence" from other members of the group currently in custody. The information identified the location of a cell leader who "conspires with several known Khata'ib Hezbollah criminals" and was behind the deadly June 4 improvised rocket-assisted mortar, or IRAM, attack in the Sha'ab neighborhood in the Baghdad district of Adhamiyah. The attack, which was thought to be directed at a US forward operating base, killed 18 Iraqis and wounded 29 after the rockets detonated prematurely and fell short. The cell leader was among those captured.

From Long War Journal

It looks like all nations and their proxies have collateral damage.
Likely this will not be trumpeted in the MSM.

Many undercurrents in this story (besides the collateral damage issue), like Iran attempting to influence Iraq.

Or getting ready to influence once the US leaves.

Iran will not go away - with nuclear, conventional and para-military forces.

2008-08-27T01:15:00.002-05:00

While Democrats have their convention, Al-Qaeda keeps trying to influence their groups.

No one has talked about Somalia lately?

Late last week, Shabab fighters overran the strategic southern port city of Kismayo, Somalia's second largest city. The capture of Kismayo capped a yearlong campaign by Shabab to retake territory lost to the Ethiopians in late 2006 and early 2007.

(From Long War journal)

Shahab is a Pro Al-Qaeda fighter group, that is trying to take South Somalia.

This is a global struggle, and there is no letup.

2008-08-17T23:22:00.004-05:00

I wanted to make a quick comment on the current Georgia-Russia crisis.

The initial thought is that it is not always a good idea to counter the other parties moves, as it may backfire.

I am certain that Russia did not anticipate Poland going through with the anti-missile system, while Ukraine also helping with tracking missiles presumably from Russia and/or Iran.

As of today The Russian forces in Georgia have not left yet.

This bluster that Russia is showing has many purposes, including showing strength. But moving Poland and Ukraine to the American ABM camp was likely not one of it's reason for being.

For the US this potential diplomatic crisis can effect Iran as well.

It will show Iran what the US will do when push comes to shove.

The US has very little wiggle room in this conflict, so the response is important.

One cannot very easily move troops into Georgia even if that was possible.

The best one can do is drop some airborne troops within a couple of days.

No heavy units will make it easily.

Turkey would have to let a naval fleet through into the Black sea.

Turkey may come into even more diplomatic power (even though it is also invested in the Iraq conflict through the militant Kurds in their country).

2008-07-13T01:52:00.002-05:00

So the true story with the bogus missile flap, is that Iran likes to send out press releases and generate news to potentially counter the Israeli Wargaming that happened a few days before the missile test.

Sort of a PR tit-for-tat.

Although they hurt themselves with a little zealousness with their photoshop department.

The underlying nuclear ambition of Iran and the West's need to counter Iran's nuclear ambitions have not changed. In fact these PR battles only draw emotion into the conflict where it does not belong.

2008-07-13T01:42:00.004-05:00

I figured I would finally comment on the latest Iran-Missile flap -

Where Iran "tested" a few missiles, which they claim was their new 1300 mile range missile.

It turns out I was right not to comment for a while (as this is a historical viewpoint blog), it is good to see current events with a few more days under the belt).

Here is a picture which aptly demonstrates what actually happened(above this post)

And here is the AP story on the updated information

Basically, the missile test was actually using old missiles, and the photo sent out by Iran was photoshopped (which is why someone ingeniously photoshopped the image above).

I got the image from Armscontrolwonk.com.

2008-07-02T00:21:00.002-05:00

Another US - Taliban border clash in Pakistan-Afghanistan

Long War Journal post

The US military and Afghan National Army fought yet another major engagement in eastern Afghanistan along the border with Pakistan. An estimated 33 Taliban were killed in a battle in the Spera district in Khost province.

The battle began after the Taliban launched a complex attack on a US outpost in the Spera district, right along the Pakistani border. The Taliban followed up a rocket attack with small-arms and rocket-propelled grenade fire. US forces beat back the attack with "mortar, artillery fire and close air support," the International Security Assistance Force reported in a press release.

This is another in a long series of clashes before the US Presidential election.

2008-06-11T00:25:00.002-05:00

Pakistan unmanned airplane attack by US

The airstrike is thought to have been carried out inside the Mohmand tribal agency. "There was an attack by a spy plane close to the Afghan border but we don't have information about casualties or damage," the unnamed Pakistani government said.

also more snippets:

Abu Sulayman Jazairi, a senior Algerian operative for al Qaeda’s central organization, along with 13 associates, was killed in an airstrike against a Taliban and al Qaeda safe house in the town of Damadola in Pakistan’s Bajaur tribal agency on May 14. Jazairi is described as a senior trainer, an explosives expert, and an operational commander tasked with planning attacks on the West.

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These are interesting new developments, where the US is now using every means available to hit Al Queda in Pakistan - where Al Queda was safe from US attacks in the past.

2008-06-09T23:22:00.002-05:00

Iran and the evil question.

I think it would not be wise to assume that Iran is evil, although one can potentially think about the ramifications of some portion of the leadership being evil.

Is it wise to think of a country as evil.

What would the ramifications be if we knew that leader xyz in Iran has the potential of becoming Hitler II?

When would we know that is the case?

Would the US compromise it's integrity and this if assuming evil and what can the US truly do about it?

It is my assertion that unless a true smoking gun can be found, evil can only be combated in a reactionary method.

I.e. after some event happens, then we can go into action. That is how democracies work.

So, the problem and the million dollar question is: What if Hitler II (wherever he is) obtains nukes and uses them?

unless we see a smoking gun with definite proof, we can only react.

So, the unfortunate fact is that we are destined to get hit by a nuke - some time from now.

It would be ironic? and I can hear the rhetoric now:

We used the atomic bomb in Nagasaki and Hiroshima - thus it is only fitting that the great satan (USA) receives it's own medicine.

Innocent people? are there any innocent people in the mind of the megalomaniac?

2008-06-08T16:42:00.002-05:00

What should the headline be:

Iran and the problem of Evil

Or is Iran evil? And if so what can we do about it?

I think that the article by Michael Ledeen is a good article, I like this part especially:

How could Western leaders, let alone the victims, be blamed for failing to see something that was almost totally new – systematic mass murder on a vast scale, and a threat to civilization itself? Never before had there been such an organized campaign to destroy an entire "race," and it was therefore almost impossible to see it coming, or even to recognize it as it got under way

(He was talking about Nazi Germany and Hitler)

But the historical introspection should be given more insight.

Is Iran evil? How can we tell?

If it is evil then what can we do about it without going against our peaceful principles?

Sort of like precognition with crime, if you could tell there would be a crime before it happened what could you do about it? And how sure are you?

Unfortunately if an entity is truly evil they will use all positions to further their cause.

The main reason for calling Iran evil is Ahmadinejad's call to erase Israel.

Is it evil to erase another country if the two countries are based on religious beliefs? The Iranian population is primarily of Islamic religious beliefs - If the leadership of Iran supports their reasoning with religious beliefs and the belief is to erase Israel.

Is that evil or just another religion?

2008-06-06T22:26:00.002-05:00

This is the worry of the US:

The point when they get that bomb will be the point of no return. Iran's nuclear bomb will be the terrorists' nuclear bomb-- and they can make 9/11 look like child's play.

All the options that are on the table right now will be swept off the table forever. Our choices will be to give in to whatever the terrorists demand-- however outrageous those demands might be-- or to risk seeing American cities start disappearing in radioactive mushroom clouds.
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From Thomas Sowell

The US worry is real, and the Iranian need to develop the Nuclear bomb has many legitimate regional and power reasons (just like Hitler had legitimate reasons to rebuild Germany after the debilitating WW1 impositions by the Allies.

The big question is - Is there a third way?

2008-06-06T22:17:00.005-05:00

Cyberfaith has an Iranian pre-Olympic post - Iran won in a warm-up game.

Scroll down some more, and you will see Iranian women in various places (outside of the main stream media looks).

Also interesting a blog entry about the disputed Persian islands:

Iranian government repeatedly announced there is not any compromise about the territorial integrity

With the powerful leadership of Iranian authorities in the Persian Gulf region, Lesser Tunb, greater Tunb and Abu Mousa will remain inseparable parts of Iran; never to be removed off the country.
By grudgingly misuse of the friendly and peaceful approach of Iranian government toward the issue of triple Islands, state of UAE showed it needs more harsh and cutting reaction despite of being warned so many times from Iran.
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Apparently UAE is making a bid for them, and Iran is not having any of it.

I wonder what the Presidential campaigns position is on this topic?

And most interesting: a caption of a picture (Protesting Iranian holding up the slogan: "Great Persia including UAE under the flag of Islamic Republic of Iran")

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Border disputes are how wars are typically are launched.

Remember the Saddam Kuwait invasion? Started because of an Oil border dispute. (Iraq was drilling across the border)

2008-06-06T22:13:00.001-05:00

I have added some more links (Iranian) cleaned some items up and added the donate link.

Unfortunately I have recently been laid off so I will work a little on the Blogging in between checking out ads.

Thanks

2008-05-11T23:05:00.002-05:00

I just read "The Franco-Prussian War"

By Geoffrey Wawro

It was an interesting book.

I learned a lot of things - and will summarize in bullet points:

** Bismarck was a statesman and a master diplomat - but did not see into the future enough.
Otto Von Bismarck kept a cool head throughout an extremely chaotic situation while in France.

The Prussian army was besieging Paris for months, won several battles, but the French still would not give in to Bismarck's demands of territorial needs (he needed a clear win to pull all of the Germanic kingdoms together).

He did unfortunately go too far in asking for reparations, since the French foolishly were goaded into attacking Germany first.

Because Germany won in such a lopsided manner, even thogh:

** Although the German technology was superior to the Austrian in 1866, the German rifle was a breech loader, whereas the Austrians were still using muzzle loaders.

** The French had a better rifle, it could shoot effectively out to 1500 yards, whereas the German gun was only effective to 800 yards.

It was in the artillery the Prussians had a clear superiority, that and the tactics that the Prussians used made the contest a non-issue (kind of like 1940).

** Louis-Napoleon was a diplomatic lightweight and thought he was a genius.

Things I already knew:

The Prussian war machine was much more efficient than the French war machine.

So, Bismarck set up reparations which unfortunately caused the French and British to reciprocate after WW1. He did not realize the future repercussions of present actions.

But he did try to make things somewhat better - although in his eyes he was not a radical, nor a maximum punishment person, the end effect was a difficult going for France for many years.

The thing is, that Bismarck knew he needed a massive victory, and since the previous invasions of Napoleon during the early 1800's still were in many German's memories.

He would have had a good reason not to punish them somewhat.

It is interesting that the USA figured out by the Marshall Plan how to create a peaceful region out of the most warlike region of the world in the last 2000 years ( or at least it seems that way).

2008-04-15T22:08:00.003-05:00

Oops: Long War Journal points to an article about the new Pakistani government actually wanting to negotiating their way out of their mess with AlQueda.

LWT

Here is snippet:
"We're ready to talk to all those who give up arms and adopt the path of peace," Yousuf Raza Gilani, the newly appointed Prime Minister of Pakistan who represents the Pakistan People's Party, said after taking office. Gilani indicated he would negotiate with the Taliban and plans on focusing his efforts on infrastructure, humanitarian aid, and legal reforms to defeat terrorism.

Unfortunately this may not bode well if Al-Queda is using their standard tactic of arming up while 'talking'.

2008-04-13T16:38:00.002-05:00

Dick Cheney:

Speaking in Oman, a U.S.-allied Arab monarchy and neighbor of Iran's, Cheney told ABC News, "The important thing to keep in mind is the objective that we share with many of our friends in the region, and that is that a nuclear-armed Iran would be very destabilizing for the entire area."

Ok, but what does that mean?

Iran could be destabilizing if it continues to foment Iraqi strife. (giving money and support to Shiite versus the Sunni).

The problem may be that a nuclear tipped Iran can cause even more problems.

The problem can be merely one of what if Iran sells or gives nukes to terrorist organizations. How can the US trace back to Iran?

And hit Iran if they have more nukes?

2008-03-23T22:34:00.003-05:00

What is the right nuclear strategy?

Should we profess to reduce capabilities for the countries that are just gaining the ability?

Or should we let them have it only if they are allies?

Surely all countries know that once one achieves nuclear status then it is prudent for other countries to treat that country differently.

Because no one wants to push the button. But also some countries are too eager and too easy on the saber rattling. I.e. it does not help Iran when Ahmadinejad says he wants to wipe Israel off the earth.

Then i the next breath say that they have criteria to participate in world affairs without violence.

what exactly does wipe off the earth mean? If not nuclear?

2008-03-23T22:30:00.003-05:00

More posturing by new and old nuclear powers:

From spacedaily.com headlines
New India capability
March 23, 2008 - India on Sunday test fired a medium-range nuclear-capable ballistic missile capable of hitting most targets in neighbouring Pakistan, a defence official said. The Agni-1 missile, which has a range of more than 700 kilometres (430 miles), was fired at 10:15 am (0445 GMT) from an island off the coast of the eastern state of Orissa, the official said. "The user trial of the missile passed

Sarkozy(France) suggesting to Iran
Tehran (AFP) March 22, 2008
Iran on Saturday lashed out at President Nicolas Sarkozy for suggesting France needed a nuclear deterrent to counter the growing missile threat posed by states like the Islamic republic.

Russia studying missile shield
Moscow (AFP) March 20, 2008 - The United States gave Moscow guarantees that its proposed anti-missile shield "will be not directed" against Russia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday in a first sign of progress in very hard negotiations between the two countries.

2008-02-20T13:58:00.005-06:00

Khojir nukes? no proof in pudding

Powerlineblog.com had a blurb about a news story re: Khojir - a Nuclear development area near Tehran.

Check this out:
According to Google Map: Khojir coordinates are 35° 40' 58" North, 51° 42' 28" East and its original name (with diacritics) is Khojīr. See Khojir photos and images from satellite below, explore the aerial photographs of Khojir in Iran.

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Hard to tell what it is, but if one zooms out one can see that this is great country to hide stuff, close to mountains and easy to create caves etc.

Certainly this is no smoking gun - what exactly does a nuclear facility look like?

But looking at satellite photos one can make incriminating remarks but that is about it.

2008-02-13T06:18:00.002-06:00

Israel - is another big player in the chess match between Iran and US.

Yahoo news story

BERLIN - Israel's prime minister on Tuesday brushed aside suggestions that the threat from Iran's nuclear program has receded, saying he remains convinced that Tehran is "moving forward" with plans for an atomic weapon.

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It is obvious that Israel believes Iran will build nukes and ballistic missiles, then stockpile them and use them at their convenience.

What would your response be if you believed it was only a matter of time before a nation took a declaration of war and attempted to annihilate you?

Can anyone say "first strike".

No one should blame Israel as Ahmadinijad has said many times that he will lay waste to Israel. I believe the quote was to wipe Israel off the map.

2008-02-12T07:26:00.000-06:00

Iran helping Afghanistan?

Iran-Focus article

"Iran is providing assistance to Afghanistan: whether that is meant to assist Afghanistan or influence Afghanistan, I leave that to you," he said.

And he criticized Iran's forced repatriation over winter of thousands of Afghan nationals in the neighboring country illegally. The issue is a sore point in relations between Tehran and Kabul.

Wood, perhaps the most influential foreign diplomat in Kabul, said Afghanistan's relationship with Pakistan was also complicated but better cooperation between them was "crucial."

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Here is more evidence of the complicated weaving of southwest asian politics.

Tehran has helped at times, and hurt at times.

Somewhat tribal in nature these changes of direction.

2008-02-10T19:09:00.000-06:00

Talk about the weirdness that Americans see in the Saudi case of Yara:
Powerlineblog

Arab News reports on the latest outrage by Saudi Arabia's Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice: the "arrest" of a 36-year-old businesswoman identified only as "Yara" for the crime of drinking coffee in a Riyadh Starbucks with a male business associate described as a "Syrian financial analyst."
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What about this:

from Iranian.com

I wish she had not said this. All the women on the train are now staring at me. Those standing are focused on me from above and those sitting from below. I turn my head so that I can see the woman better. All of a sudden it feels as though her appearance has changed. But she is playing with her cell phone and looking at the women who surround her. A streak of stubbornness is apparent in her expression. "You mean that you would be willing to allow your husband to take on a second or even a third wife while married to you, with the law supporting him in doing so?" I ask.

"What’s the problem with that?" She responds abruptly and forcefully. "I am the second wife to my husband." All the women surrounding us are now staring at me. There is something in their gaze. It is as if they are waiting for me to put this woman in her place with a strong and reproachful response. But the woman does not allow me to respond, she continues: "I fell in love with my husband. I am still in love with him. If it weren’t for the law, I would not be allowed to be with him. Even if it is for one day a week, it is legal. This law gives us greater freedom of choice, why should I oppose it?"

I collect my signatures and leave the metro. The women only car, filled with serious discussion, departs the station.

I repeat to myself: Freedom of choice... Freedom in love... Freedom in love is one sided!!

NOTE
(*) While the Metro is not segregated and allows for women to ride in all cars, one car on all trains is set aside for women only. Most members of the Campaign focus their signature collections on the women only car.

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Us Americans just cannot fathom these social customs. And the various implications in regular standard everyday tasks.

2008-02-10T19:04:00.000-06:00

Hey Look Iran is privatizing:
Payvand News story

relevant blurb:
The 60-acre port city of Fereydoun-Kenar is located some 238 km north of the capital Tehran.

Fereydoun-Kenar was originally designated by Majlis (Iran's parliament) as a port city in 1990 and vested in private sector in the first half of the current Iranian calendar year (to end on March 19) in line with the government's efforts to complete the privatization trend in the country.

The port city has three harbors with the capacity of loading and unloading 700,000 tons of goods and grains per year.

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There is another story that says the oil sector is privatizing as well ...
Payvand

$90Billion holding company is being built.

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And what does this mean?

Iran wants foreign investment and a legitimate and strong investment community, i.e. stock market and more.

We should help them!!

2008-02-10T11:30:00.000-06:00

Some analysis from Asia Times

Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press)

offers this insight:
"In tandem with Iran's cooperation and nuclear transparency, what is needed is a phasing out of the UN sanctions regime on Iran, instead of strengthening it. Iran's former foreign minister, Ali Akbar Velayati, who advises the supreme leader on foreign policy matters, has recently stated the importance of Iran's diplomatic dialogue with the "5 +1". This signals a growing Iranian willingness to enter direct dialogue with the US on the nuclear issue.

The US must be prepared to revise its defunct and unrealistic positions on Iran's nuclear dossier, to focus on transparency and confidence-building measures pertaining to the various "objective guarantees" that Iran has been putting on the table for some time. The continuation of the present "coercive" course of action against Iran by Washington will neither solve the Iran nuclear crisis nor improve the semi-crisis that the NPT finds itself in today; rather, it will augment both. "

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Dr. Afrasiabi certainly has a point - there has been little to show for the coercive strategy.

On the other hand there has been little in options for the US.

If not coercive - then what?

An engaged diplomatic core requires some reciprocate reaction from Iran.

There has been little cooperation.

Certainly one could try the cooperation angle and see where it leads, as long as no additional technology is given to Iran then the Iranians are going to go along and do what they do anyway.

2008-02-03T14:57:00.000-06:00

Russia wants an offensive capability

From SpaceWar

If the recent words of four-star Gen. Yury Baluyevsky, the chief of the Russian General Staff, are heeded, Russia will have to equip all the services of its armed forces with permanently combat-ready nuclear weapons. Nobody can guess who will use them first.

Speaking at a meeting of the Academy of Military Sciences in Moscow on Jan. 19, Baluyevsky declared that force should be used not only in the course of hostilities, but also to demonstrate the readiness of leaders to uphold their national interests.

"We are not going to attack anyone," he reassured his audience, "but we want all our partners to realize that Russia will use armed force to defend its own and its allies' sovereignty and territorial integrity. It may resort to a pre-emptive nuclear strike in cases specified by its doctrine."

2008-01-15T07:44:00.000-06:00

Times Online

George Bush offers allies $20bn of arms to counter Iran
Tue. 15 Jan 2008
Times Online

Sonia Verma, of The Times, in Dubai

President Bush backed his political rhetoric against Iran yesterday with the promise of a $20 billion arms deal to boost the military clout of Washington’s key allies in the Gulf.
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So this is Bush' attempt to create a balance of power among the gulf states.

2008-01-06T11:31:00.000-06:00

The NYTimes has published an article

Discussing covert operations in Pakistan to hamper Al-Qaeda operations - likely to counter the anti-Bhutto operations. As well as Al-Qaeda's attempt to take the country from Musharraf government.

The similarities of options are not the same as Iran for the US, since Pakistan already has functioning nuclear weapons, a large body of opposition populace, both violent and non-violent.

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Each action will likely have a reaction by the opposition camps.

2008-01-06T11:24:00.000-06:00

An interesting photo essay (two weeks in Iran) within the Iranian.com website

Interesting to note Tehran has snow and streets and cars (just like many other cities ;)

2008-01-01T05:27:00.000-06:00

Interesting strategic insights into the Iranian question - as to what to do from here:

Kaveh Afrasiabi: From a place within iranian.com

Suffice to say that President Ahmadinejad was on the mark in his recent trip to NY, when he stated that the nuclear arsenal did not save the Soviet Union, nor proved an asset to Israel in its recent debacle in Lebanon. The argument that Iran's government seeks the bomb as a deterrent against democracy is too problematic to deserve a critical pause, for it shows a fundamental ignorance of the proliferation history and logic, and Milani should stick with his popular biography-writing than sticking his head in such convoluted waters.
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Mr. Afrasiabi mentions this after reading Akbar Ganji's Washington Post article.
His comment wsa written on October 3, 2006.

I would definitely be interested in other thoughts that Mr. Afrasiabi has regarding the nuclear proliferation.

It is interesting to note what happened to the Soviet Union, and how their nuclear arsenal did not help them develop as a nation - you could argue it hidered them.

It is also simplistic to note that nuclear proliferation will have a single reason and effect.

The complex reasons for nuclear proliferations are - cultural, nation politics, scientific advancement, and many other reasons.

Another question comes to mind which we have attempted to address:

What if anything should the US response be to Iranian attempts or even overtures at nuclear bomb development?

2007-12-30T10:14:00.001-06:00

Jared Cohen's BookTV appearance on Cspan

It is an interesting view into the minds of the youth of the middle east - how they are trying to assimilate new technology while trying to extricate themselves from their existence. To something better of course.

It remains to be seen if this something better is based in Jihad or just economic and political freedom.

2007-12-30T08:54:00.000-06:00

Just watched the Jared Cohen Booktv appearance
about his book "Children of Jihad"
http://us.penguingroup.com/nf/Book/BookDisplay/0,,9781592403240,00.html
Excerpt of review:
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Defying foreign government orders and interviewing terrorists face to face, a young American tours hostile lands to learn about Middle Eastern youth—and uncovers a subculture that defies every stereotype.

Classrooms were never sufficient for Jared Cohen; he wanted to learn about global affairs by witnessing them firsthand. During his undergraduate years Cohen traveled extensively to Africa—often to wartorn countries, putting himself at risk to see the world firsthand. While studying on a Rhodes Scholarship at Oxford, he took a crash course in Arabic, read voraciously on the history and culture of the Middle East, and in 2004 he embarked on the first of a series of incredible journeys to the Middle East. In an effort to try to understand the spread of radical Islamist violence, he focused his research on Muslim youth. The result is Children of Jihad, a portrait of paradox that probes much deeper than any journalist or pundit ever could.

The podcast of the booktv appearance:
http://www.mideasti.org/podcast/children-jihad-jared-cohen

2007-12-23T22:31:00.000-06:00

Iran has license to old German MG42 equivalent Machine Gun - the MG3

MG3

From website:

The simplicity, low manufacturing cost and high effectiveness of the MG 3 attracted several other countries, which either bought the guns from Rheinmetall (such as Denmark), or obtained manufacturing licenses and build (or at least have built in the past) the same guns domestically (such as Italy, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan and Yugoslavia). In total, at least twenty armies have used or still are using the MG 3 and its versions. It must be noted that in some countries these guns were used under their "commercial" Rheinmetall designation MG 42/59.

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So interesting to note, if US units engage Iranian armed forces of rtheir proxies supplied by Iran they could very well engage the descendant of the German Wehrmacht MG42.

It was known as the saw in WW2, since it fired do many rounds per second (25) that it sounded like a buzz saw.

Since it was a good useful weapon the Bundeswehr (today's German armed force) kept the weapon.

2007-12-18T02:30:00.000-06:00

Bush still pushing for Iran sanctions and pressure

FREDERICKSBURG, Virginia (AFP) — US President George W. Bush said Monday that Russian deliveries of nuclear fuel to Iran only fed the need for the world to clamp down more firmly on Tehran's home-grown atomic work.

And the US State Department announced consultations Tuesday with five other powers on a draft UN Security Council resolution imposing tougher sanctions on the Islamic republic for refusing to freeze uranium enrichment.

"Iran was a threat to peace, Iran is a threat to peace, and Iran will be a threat to peace if we don't stop their enrichment," which can be a critical step towards getting nuclear arms, Bush told a town-hall style audience here.

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Unfortunately there seem to be no good quick responses - only ways to get involved in war (with military action).

Or if one does do economic sanctions that would mean long time delays before something happens.

One could do clandestine actions, but those do not look like they would make quick headway either.

In my opinion one has to increase the Human Intelligence(HUMINT), since one does not really know what is going on.

Only then could one strike effectively (like the Israelis did in Syria).

The wildcard is Israel - what will it do if it feels trhreatened by its HUMINT?

2007-12-18T02:26:00.000-06:00

Notice the four ethnic groups in Pakistan.

The Federal Tribal lands are in the Pushtun area, and this is where Al Qeada has found refuge.

2007-12-18T02:16:00.000-06:00

Japan successfully tests anti-missile defence from Destroyers (ship based)

It is interesting that the US and Japan now have ship-based interceptor technology.

It remains to be seen how well they would do in the live real world.

But there is a limited availability.

Which is better than nothing.

Is it better to have a questionable ability?

Or no ability?

2007-12-16T18:57:00.000-06:00

Turkey is worried about Iraq (Kurdistan)
"Turkey remains deeply concerned by ongoing developments in neighboring Iraq and opposes any division of the country, Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul told a security symposium gathered in the capital of the Gulf kingdom of Bahrain last weekend."

But this is the clincher: "The PKK has been struggling for autonomy for the Kurdish-populated regions inside Turkey, though many observers believe their ultimate aim is to achieve independence for Kurdistan, a region that straddles Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria."

Both Turkey and iran are afraid of what could be - Kurdistan in tyheir eyes would be a disaster.

It is not surprising that the Turkish Defense Minister makes statements like that.

They mean to root out the PKK in Turkey and Iraq.

2007-12-15T15:10:00.000-06:00

Strategic objectives

What would be the strategic objectives of Iran?

To gain more regional power?

Increase economy?

Gain land?

Gain prestige?

Allow an unpopular government to stick to an issue that quiets opposition?

If you ask me developing the nuclear bomb for Iran is a win-win-win.

If they successfully develop the bomb they will gsin prestige and economic bonuses through negotiations.

If they do not but make a good front of doing so, they will still gain prestige and the enemy never truly knows what is happening.

If they do not develop and don't say anything, no one knows the status and countries and internal people still have to assume there is something there.

The thing is - that no one can take a chance - What if it is true?

That is the billion dollar question.

2007-12-08T06:30:00.000-06:00

Rasmussen Iran poll

Here is the synopsis:
Just 18% of American voters believe that Iran has halted its nuclear weapons program. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 66% disagree and say Iran has not stopped its nuclear weapons program. Twenty-one percent (21%) of men believe Iran has stopped the weapons development along with 16% of women (see crosstabs).

The survey was conducted following release of a government report saying that Iran halted its nuclear weapons development program in 2003.

The Rasmussen Reports survey also found that 67% of American voters believe that Iran remains a threat to the national security of the United States. Only 19% disagree while 14% are not sure.
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So much for the NIE report that Iran has stopped nuclear weapons development.

This being an apolitical blog, we will not discuss the reasons of the NIE report or any other internal US politicking.

Although it may have made sense to stop Nuclear development as the US army was rolling towards Baghdad for Iran (in 2003).

As time passed and especially as the insurgency movement gained momentum Iran likely restarted its program.

Which is what the nuclear agency has put togeher:

In fact November 2003: The Natural Resource Defense Council has this report:

Iran Develops Nuclear Technologies in Secret for 18 Years
A report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency describes technological advances and a policy of concealment.

On November 10, 2003, the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a 30-page confidential report on Iran's nuclear activities. The report, which the agency sent to its board of governors and to 20 governments, reveals that for the past 18 years Iran has secretly developed technologies for producing weapon-usable highly enriched uranium and plutonium. During that time, the report says, Iran violated its Nonproliferation Treaty obligations and falsified declarations to the agency regarding safeguards required under the treaty.

2007-12-05T23:11:00.000-06:00

Office of Director of National Intelligence

Came out with the latest NIE report leak from a report of 2003 Iranian capability which said that Iran no longer was pursuing Nuclear weapons.

The key to this report: Wash Post story:

Iranian leaders boasted that the new report vindicated them, but European allies agreed with Bush that Tehran's continued uranium enrichment program for what it says are civilian purposes remains a threat that merits international action. A senior U.S. envoy won agreement from other permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany to push forward for additional sanctions, according to U.S. and foreign officials, although some worried that the consensus would tatter.

This is really kind of a red Herring. We still do not know the Iranian capabilities, nor do we have a good strategy to come up with a way to prevent Iran from possessing Nuclear weapons. Or if they did possess weapons of Mass Destruction what should we do?

------------------------------------------------------

The trillion dollar question is what we should do and what Iran will do in response.

If the US and EU would attack suspected bomb sites and were unsuccessful then Iran has a Casus Belli to respond in kind.

They may respond before asny action to pre-empts an attack.

2007-12-02T23:03:00.000-06:00

What if US attacks? Iran

In game theory one reviews the options to see what the potential issues are.

Asia Times article

With the IRGC as the first national military organization sanctioned by the United States, Washington and Tehran have now moved another step closer to a possible military showdown. In light of the unfolding crisis, it remains unclear what could happen in a military conflict between Iran and the United States. A basic scenario involves a comprehensive US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, naval forces, information and technology support system (especially those linked to nuclear sites in Bushehr, Isfahan and Tehran) and finally the bombing of IRGC ground force units stationed near the strategic cities of Abadan, Ahvaz, Chah Bahar, Dezful, Hamadan, Khoramshahr and Mashahd.

The United States, possibly with the help of Israel, could help stave off Iranian retaliation by destroying Iran's command air base where Iranian fighter jets are kept on daily readiness against potential attacks by American forces.

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This reporter at Asia Times speculates on a variety of potential targets for the US.

When one thinks about this, one should also realize the potential response from Iran.

What can one hit, how successful would that be and what is the potential response from Iran?

The reporter does get into this retaliation:

Tactics of retaliation
It goes without saying that in the case of a US attack on Iran the Shi'ite population in Iraq would be largely supportive of Tehran's retaliatory military actions. It remains unclear, however, as to the extent to which the Shi'ite clerical establishment would be willing to give allegiance to the Iranian leadership, who historically have rejected the Quietist ideology of the Iraqi Shi'ite seminary at Najaf and its conservative stance against revolutionary uprising.

....

The IRGC's most effective means of combating US forces in Iraq will revolve primarily around unconventional war tactics and intelligence gathering, namely suicide terrorism and espionage intelligence through an effective system of native informants. The deadliest weapon that the IRGC can employ against US forces in Iraq will be the "live bomb". It is well known that the IRGC originally carried suicide strategies to Hezbollah militants in Lebanon in the early 1980s; the IRGC and Hezbollah even deployed joint suicide operations against Israeli and US forces.

Here is the conclusion:

The irony of the US policy of disengagement is that the more it aims to weaken the IRGC through sanctions, the more it strengthens its military influence, and hence increases the chance of conflict in a region the United States has sought to stabilize for many years.

-------------------------------------------------

over the coming days we will delve into this some more.

2007-11-30T08:46:00.000-06:00

Iranian missile and nuclear proliferation is a vexing problem for the world.

Every country that wants to emerge from the second and third tier power base has to develop missile and nuclear technologies to flex their muscles.

This causes strain from the top tier powers as they do not wish to compete with the newcomer.

If one looks at this issue objectively it is only a matter of time that more and more countries develop the capabilities of missile and nuclear technologies.

With enough money, time and effort one will get there.

A nuclear weapon has been done before, it is not an insurmountable technology.

It is only a matter of time and money.

2007-11-29T05:00:00.000-06:00

Iran's new missile capability can almost reach Kosovo.

In case you were wondering what 2000km means.

The intent of the press releases are to infer that Iran has the capability of reaching Israel and a little further.

Of course range and accuracy are not yet truly known. It is one thing to tout range it is another to produce.

Korea's tests come to mind - especially the ones where their missiles blew up over their launch pad.

Of Course korea did send a few over Japan as well.

2007-11-29T04:52:00.000-06:00

Iran's missile capabilities and what they would mean:

FAS info

The Shahab-3: The Iranian Shahab-3 is a single-stage, liquid-fueled, road-mobile, medium-range ballistic missile with a range of approximately 800 miles (1,280 km). A MRBM variant, sometimes called Shahab-4, has a range of more than 1,200 miles (1,930 km).

It is the Ashura which has been recently touted as being capable of 2000km: Space War

2007-11-28T03:10:00.000-06:00

Kurdistan

This is likely to be the one item that will plunge the Turkey-Iraq-Iran area into war:

If you notice, Kurdistan covers all three current sovereign countries.

This is bound to cause problems.

2007-11-28T03:07:00.000-06:00

Party for Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK)

Has been attacked by Iranian Artillery units.

"Iran is creating a lot of problems for the Kurdistan Regional Government [KRG]," said the chief of security police in the nearby town of Soran, who only revealed his first name, Gafar. "Border areas are being shelled every day." The KRG is the governing authority of the predominantly Kurdish region of northern Iraq, or Iraqi Kurdistan.

From AsiaTimes

interesting tidbits:

With or without US support, the PJAK poses a direct challenge to Iran's security. Claiming to have over 4,000 members, it is one of the largest - if not the largest - opposition group in the country. Expert in hit-and-run tactics, PJAK has proven to be a formidable force, launching daring raids and even shooting down an Iranian helicopter in September, according to the New York Times.

PJAK leaders claim to be receiving a steady flow of recruits from Iran's 3.7 million Kurds, who complain of cultural discrimination and of being economically depressed, despite inhabiting oil-rich lands.

Unlike its PKK cousins, the PJAK is not fighting for an independent Kurdish homeland. Rather, it is fighting for regime change - to replace Iran's theocracy with a democratic and highly federalized system that would grant autonomous rights not only to Kurds, but also to Azeri, Baloch and Arab regions of the country.

A major component of its struggle is to empower the Iranian population - and in particular women. According to the group's charter, 12 of the 21 members of the PJAK's elected legislature must be women, as well as three of the seven members of the leadership council. In addition, leaders say 45% of the group are women.

-----------------------------------------

Notice that the PJAK is trying to subvert the Iranian Kurdish area from within and outside of Iran.

2007-11-27T00:04:00.000-06:00

According to Economist

GDP of Iran 2006: $216.1B

So if $60B is oil revenue then ~25% is oil revenue. (2007 says $256.5B

Both 2006 and 2007 have a (b) which means an estimate ... 2005 actuals say $189.8B
From Bank Markazi data. according to this GDP report the oil revenues were 10% of GDP in 2004.

2007-11-26T22:34:00.000-06:00

Iran's oil earnings forecast at 60 billion dollars

Payvand News

Now I need to find the rest of the earnings for Iran...

Need to find some economic numbers on Iran.

2007-11-26T22:13:00.000-06:00

We will soon force others to accept a nuclear Iran: Larijani

From Iran Focus

The Islamic Republic will soon force other nations to accept it as a nuclear power, Iran’s former chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said on Monday.

“In the near future, we will force others to accept a nuclear Iran” Larijani was quoted as saying by the state-owned news agency Fars.

------------------------

Interesting to note that Larijani has been dismissed.

2007-11-26T22:11:00.000-06:00

2 dead as Iranian fighter jet crashes in Sea of Oman

An F-4 crashed.

2007-11-11T09:30:00.001-06:00

Province map of Iran

2007-11-11T09:18:00.000-06:00

New age of warfare:

Yes there are guns and bullets- soldiers and leaders.

But the real arena is in the mind - the age of the media.

The Internet, print and video arenas.

Here is where the new wars will be won or lost.

Yes, there will be regular bullet battles ... but the new arena is the mind - the media that pervades and seeps into the mind.

This is why this blog is here: "To counteract the media fallacies -- the group think methods are false. What we need are facts, strategy, and effective action in in a new age."

2007-11-08T23:01:00.000-06:00

Prepare yourselves for the next phase in warfare:

I do not believe Iran will fight the US straight on...

Hidden attacks in Persian Gulf...

Attacks around the world.

In US

timed for the media to digest and take in the new order.

It would not even take a full sized nuke.

conventional weapons using asymmetric warfare can cause enough damage to create problems for the US in media circles.

2007-11-08T19:57:00.000-06:00

Iranian conventional forces roundup

CIA roundup

Qom (as you see right next to tehran practically... is a holy city for Shiite Muslims - 8th century.

As in Encyclopedia.com: Qom City in w central Iran. The burial place of Fatima, her shrine is a place of pilgrimage for Shi'ite Muslims. Industries: textiles, rugs, pottery, glass, shoes. Pop. (2002) 893,500.

2007-11-08T17:58:00.001-06:00

Ok eh, took a little hiatus - too busy at work and all.

But I will get back to researching the middle eastern hotspot "Iran".

Everybody has their bogeyman - and today it is $100 oil (per barrel that is).

I.e. let us drill in the US so we do not have to be as dependent on the oil strong men of the world (Chavez, Ahmadinejad and Putin)

I'm not sure I would classify Putin in the same cateory, as he is likely only trying to make some money, and preserve some of his political capital at home (Russia).

Wheras one can make an argument that Chavez and Ahmadinejad are not in it for the money - they are in it for the power.

2007-10-31T07:11:00.000-05:00

Comment is Free Blog has an interesting comment.

"There is universal consensus that Muslim dictatorships, supported by the west, are the root of evil. They destroy political culture, kill extra-judicially and their repression foments violence.

The primary opponents of these dictators are the populist Islamists. They want to vote; except after voting they want to appoint an extra-constitutional body of clerics to strike down legislation they do not approve of."

Most interesting is the comment about the extra-constitutional body of clerics.

Could this be Iran?

2007-10-26T07:34:00.000-05:00

Iran Sanctions Editorial in Washington Post

Interesting conclusion:
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If this diplomatic offensive fails, President Bush or his successor is likely to face a choice between accepting Iran's acquisition of the means to build nuclear weapons and ordering military strikes to destroy its facilities. That's why it is senseless and irresponsible for those who say they oppose military action -- including a couple of the second-tier Democratic presidential candidates -- to portray the sanctions initiative as a buildup to war by Mr. Bush. We've seen no evidence that the president has decided on war, and it's clear that many senior administration officials understand the package as the best way to avoid military action. It is not they but those who oppose tougher sanctions who make war with Iran more likely.
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This is true tough sanctions will just potentially stave off a conflict.

But I doubt it. The ruling religious regime, as chronicled in other posts have a different agenda. And a little bit of sanctions will not effect them too much.

In fact a little depravity for religious extremists is expected and relished.

This is a train wreck waiting to happen.

2007-10-26T06:56:00.000-05:00

More grumbling about Iran's nuclear ability around the standard blogs (on my link list)

Let's look at conventional forces:

Air Force

The Shah (according to link) had purchased a formidable air arm which decimated the Iraq Air force during the eight year Iraq-Iran war.

With Boeing 707 tankers the F14's have a range of 2500 km. Thus also have a formidable offensive capability.

If you marry this with a buying power of oil in the last few years:

(i.e. scrolling to the current state of air power purchases)
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At least 115 combat aircraft flew to Iran, out of the total of 137-149 aircraft flown to Iran or crashed enroute [including 15 Il-76s and some number of civilian airliners]. According to an official Iraqi statement, the aircraft included 115 combat aircraft, among them 24 Mirage F1s, 4 Su-20 Fitters, 40 Su-22 Fitters, 24 Su-24 Fencers, seven Su-25 Frogfoots, nine MiG-23 Floggers, and four MiG-29 Fulcrums. Reports that Saddam Hussein ordered 20 Tu-22 bombers to Iran appear unfounded. In 1993 it was reported that Russia was to provide Iran with spare parts, armaments, and operating manuals for the Iraqi jets that flew to Iran during the Gulf War. In 1993 it was reported that China had bought an unknown number of these MiG-29s from Iran, in exchange for Chinese missile technology and a nuclear power station. The two countries had reportedly reached agreement on the exchange in late 1992, with Iran having delivered some of the MiG-29s by the end of 1992. In 1998 Iraq and Iran had high-level meetings to discuss ending their state of war and other matters, including Iraq's request to have its airplanes back. Iran denied it had used any of the Iraqi fighter planes. If Iran had kept the Iraqi planes grounded for the entire time, they are probably nonfunctional -- the Iranians may not be able to start the engines or operate the hydraulics. Other reports suggest that some Su-24s have been added to Iran's existing inventory, some Su-20/22s were in Revolutionary Guard service. The Iraqi Su-25s, MiG-23s and Mirage F1s were thought by some to be not in service, due to age, low capability (MiG-23s) or too few numbers (Su-25). Other reports suggest that Iran had overhauled Iraq's fleet of 24 Mirage F-1B fighters and placed them into service.

An unknown number of "new" Su-25s were delivered to the Iranian Revolution Guards Corps Air Force (IRGCAF) in 2003. Where these Frogfoots originate from is unclear.

In July 2003 Chengdu Aircraft Industrial Corporation (CAIC) unveiled the new ‘Super-7’ or Chao Qi fighter plane to the public. The new Super-7 is “an all-purpose light fighter, required to have all-weather operation capabilities, be capable of performing the dual tasks of dogfight and air-to-ground attack, and have the ability to launch medium-range missiles. Mass production of the fighter will not begin until two and a half years of research are completed. The plane is being produced to be sold abroad to developing nations. China already has received orders from Iran and some African countries.

There have been reports of some 10 F-8Ms "Finback", 7 Tu-22Ms, 19 MIG-27s, and several MIG-31s (Russia's most modern fighter aircraft, US$40 million) being present in Iran, but these are not confirmed.

On 30 July 2007 the Jerusalem Post reported that Iran was negotiating with Russia to buy 250 Sukhoi Su-30 “Flanker” fighter-bombers. Israeli defense officials were investigating the potential Iran-Russia deal, in which Iran would pay $1 billion a dozen squadrons’ worth of the jets. Iran would also buy 20 Ilyushin Il-78 Midas tankers that could extend the fighters’ range as part of the deal. The move was seen as a response to the new American plans to sell billions of dollars’ worth of weapons to potential Iranian adversaries in the Middle East - Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Israel. This report came soon after other deals to sell advanced Su-27 and Su-30 combat fighters to Indonesia, Malaysia and Venezuela.

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So the move by Putin to come down to Iran was likely some kind of clincher for arms purchases - $1Bil for a dozen Su-30 Fighter Bombers, and if 250 were discussed that is now a ~$20Bil transaction.

Certainly enough for a closing transaction sales call by Putin.

http://www.sci.fi/~fta/Su-30.htm Has a lot of historical and current data on the SU-30 and its variants...

Doing a Google search has uncovered India and Venezuela purchase of this Fighter-Bomber.

2007-10-19T11:24:00.000-05:00

Iran: Secretive Assembly Of Experts Begins Fourth Term

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/02/4d75ed08-e380-4a5e-ac2f-93e520a82407.html

excerpt:
February 20, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- The Assembly of Experts, an 86-member body of clerics that ostensibly elects Iran's supreme leader and supervises his work, today opened its fourth term since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Members of the assembly were elected to their eight-year terms on December 15. The assembly's authority in overseeing the supreme leader would appear to give it a decisive role in Iranian politics, but as with other institutions in the Islamic Republic, its power is more theoretical than actual.

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It is interesting how they elect their leaders... It has to do with a quasi tribal system, where they elect these religious elders, and out of these elders an ayotollah is elected - or supreme religious leader.

8year terms means that longevity is achieved and long-term stability.

Within the article it states that just now it is legitimate to discuss who the next ayatollah will be.

2007-10-19T11:23:00.000-05:00

Assembly of experts:

from: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/tehran/inside/govt.html
Robin Wright, a foreign correspondent for the Los Angeles Times and the author of The Last Great Revolution: Turmoil and Transformation in Iran (2000) compares the Assembly of Experts to the Vatican's College of Cardinals, and writes that it is the "most obscure of Iran's many [governing] bodies."

I am not sure if that is a good analogy, since the cardinals are not elected to 8year terms. I believe a roman cardinal is a cardinal for life, barring something unforeseen (gross negligence).

One must remember the tribal history of Iran.

It is not surprising that reporters do not get the historical underpinnings of other societies.

2007-10-19T11:20:00.000-05:00

Who is really running Iran now???

(from http://www.iranchamber.com/history/islamic_revolution/islamic_revolution.php)
Following Ayatollah Khomeini's death on 3 June 1989 of a heart attack, Khamenei assumed the role of supreme spiritual leader. The Assembly of Experts (Ulama) met in emergency session on June 4 and elected President Khamenei the new Valy-e-Faqih (supreme spiritual leader), simultaneously promoting him to the status of ayatollah. And Hojatoleslam Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, speaker of the Majles (parliament) was elected as a president.

I will need to find out who this assembly of experts is.

2007-10-18T23:26:00.000-05:00

When "Persia" became Iran: 1935 It looks like Farsi is spoken in a portion of Afghanistan also.

Farsinet.com

From Farsinet:
Farsi - Persian Language Persian Language, also known as Farsi, is the most widely spoken member of the Iranian branch of the Indo-Iranian languages, a subfamily of the Indo-European languages. It is the language of Iran (formerly Persia) and is also widely spoken in Afghanistan and, in an archaic form, in Tajikistan and the Pamir Mountain region.

Persian is spoken today primarily in Iran and Afghanistan, but was historically a more widely understood language in an area ranging from the Middle East to India. Significant populations of speakers in other Persian Gulf countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, People's Democratic Republic of Yemen, and the United Arab Emirates), as well as large communities in the USA.

Total numbers of speakers is high: over 40 million Farsi speakers (about 50% of Iran's population); over 7 million Dari Persian speakers in Afghanistan (25% of the population); and about 2 million Dari Persian speakers in Pakistan.

In Afghanistan Farsi is spoken almost everywhere and close to 60 % of Afghanistan's total population speak Farsi or Dari.

2007-10-18T23:22:00.000-05:00

Languages of Iran

Islamic Republic of Iran, Jomhouri-e-Eslami-e-Irân. 67,503,205. National or official language: Western Farsi. Literacy rate: 70% to 75% among those 6 years old and over (1995–1996 Iran Statistical Center). Also includes Eastern Farsi (1,000,000), Hulaulá (300), Tajiki, Turkish (2,570), people from Afghanistan (3,000,000), Kurds from Iraq (120,000), Shi'a Arabs from Iraq. Information mainly from E. Drower 1939; R. Macuch 1965; I. Garbell 1965; T. Sebeok 1969, 1970; G. Doerfer et al. 1971; R. Oberling 1974; D. L. Stilo 1981; R. D. Hoberman 1988a, b. Blind population: 200,000 (1982 WCE). Deaf population: 3,978,055. Deaf institutions: 50. The number of languages listed for Iran is 77. Of those, 75 are living languages and 2 are extinct.

Western Farsi is the official language of Iran

2007-10-18T21:21:00.000-05:00

Pakistan plans all-out war with militants - from article in Asian Times

"An all-out battle for control of Pakistan's restive North and South Waziristan is about to commence between the Pakistani military and the Taliban and al-Qaeda adherents who have made these tribal areas their own.

According to a top Pakistani security official who spoke to Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity, the goal this time is to pacify the Waziristans once and for all. All previous military operations - usually spurred by intelligence provided by the Western coalition - have had limited objectives, aimed at specific"

This could be a bad sign for Iran - as a defeat for Al-Queda in Waziristan Pakistan will allow the American forces to focus on other things.

2007-10-18T09:08:00.000-05:00

The following link in defensindustrydaily
includes:
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Hezbollah/Iran's rockets
In the aftermath of the recent fighting between Iran/Syria proxies Hezbollah and Israel, a few after action reviews and assessments have begun to trickle in. While war is inseparable in practice from political strategy, and the Olmert government's interference in military planning & operations was significant and negative, DID has searched for analyses that offer more of a techno-tactical assessment. Details have been far sketchier than one is used to for American conflicts, but a hazy picture is beginning to emerge and evaluations are being made of the two forces' effectiveness. Hezbollah can safely be characterized as a state within a state and was aided by Iranian forces. Accordingly, this conflict featured most of the accoutrements of full state conflicts: Armed UAVs (apparently used by both sides), air and missile strikes with corresponding air defense activity, anti-ship cruise missiles, tanks vs. advanced anti-armor missiles (incl. AT-13s and Milans), et. al. As such the performance of the two forces and their equipment is of serious interest to defense observers around the world.

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Interesting to note the known involvement of Iran's influence in a recent conflict with Israel.

2007-10-05T13:10:00.000-05:00

Ahmadinejad speech

From a speech on Al-Quds day:

"Referring to the supporters of Zionism, the Chief Executive said, "Why don't you allow the black box of Zionist crimes to be opened?!"

"The oppressed Palestinians have been deprived of all their human rights for over 60 years now. Today, the problem Quds is facing is not a Palestinian or even a Middle Eastern issue; it is global!"

"Zionism is a global threat, and is not only harming Palestine. The establishment of the Zionist regime and the all-out support (some countries extend to it) is an insult to human dignity," he added.

"Some powers believe their destiny is to protect the interests of the disgraced Zionist regime. Western countries which are pioneers in secularism and impiety support the Zionist regime as if it were the holiest task in the world."

Supporting Zionism is so important for them that they don't even allow anyone to question the establishment of the Regime, Ahmadinejad stated. "

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Ahmadinejad is speaking to his base - (Al-Qud), and thus this is red meat. It is not out of the realm of possibility to say that most of Islam would be happy if Israel the country would disappear. Islam remembers history - the historical timeframe of ~660 - ~1948 where there was no Israel.

2007-10-05T08:05:00.000-05:00

Sen. Byrd is saying we are again on the path to war in a similar vein as to the Iraq war run-up.

with little to show for eventually (no WMD found eventually).

The Iran -US - World conflict to come is a bit more complex than slinging verbal spitballs (he also comments on the US declaring Al-Qud a terrorist organization - and the Iranians declaring the CIA and the US military a terrorist org).

2007-10-05T05:37:00.000-05:00

Video by Sen. Byrd about Iranian stance:

The problem with the honorable senator's recollection of history is that the US has always looked at it's short term results with other countries. This has not always looked favorably upon the historical analysis and introspection of these decisions.

2007-10-05T05:08:00.000-05:00

Anti-Iran website (Regime Change in Iran)

"Ayatollah al-Hassani is an outspoken critic of Iranian meddling in Iraq and has called for Iran’s embassy in Baghdad to be closed. READ MORE

In June, his supporters held a protest outside the Iranian consulate in Karbala and torched Iran's consulate in the southern Iraqi city of Basra.

They were protesting against a program aired on Iran’s state-run satellite channel al-Kowthar against the Shiite cleric.

Iran has at least seven Arabic-language television stations and more than two dozens journals spreading its propaganda in Iraq.

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The problem with a peace movement (in the US and other western countries) is that the peace movements do not take into account the actual actions of the various parties involved in the (potential) war.

In Iran vis a vis US you have the Ahmadinijad presidency, the mullahs, the tribes against Iraq, Afghanistan. And of course the absolute animus versus Israel.

If one adds nuclear ambitions to this volatile mix... peace is the last item on a very long list.

The above post is a website that is anti-Iran in the sense of the current political powers. But on their website they proudly display the Iranian flag, and if you asked them about soccer results they would not have a question on their mind as to what would happen. (everyone is pro-Iran).

Except for the most stringent Islamic adherent which considers any sport sacrilege.

2007-10-05T04:49:00.001-05:00

Tribal society thoughts...

It is hard for us westerners to relate to tribal societies.

We live in a media driven relatively peaceful republic. Where Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and actually most of the middle eastern countries have long roots in tribal sociology.

Maybe we can relate with an analogy (analogies are imperfect but do make you think from a different angle).

How about this:

Imagine you are watching a classic US Western movie... actually the whole world is familiar with this because of the Hollywood dissemination of the last 100 years.

In the last of the Mohicans there were several tribes (also called nations)

Some were violent and some eventually got annihilated.

So when you read tribal society - think about the American Indian movies that you have seen.

How did they make decisions? They always conferred into a pow wow - discussing among themselves and then finally asking the elder --- which had a huge weight with his voice.

But this was not the final voice --- it was a sort of village decision with the elders and wise people making a significant contribution.

then after the decision is made... no looking back.

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Time after time we hear of Iraqi Anbar Province sheiks (equivalent to American Indian elder?)

making decisions... I am sure they did not unilaterally come up with the decision.

Within Scottish Clans of pre-1600 time frame this was also similar... (Braveheart the movie).

I am trying to relate movies because we are so media driven... although the middle east has its own peculiarities since religion also plays a part (whereas all American Indians were of a
similar religion).

For example a Shiite tribe is not going to be too excited about making a long-term commitment with a Sunni tribe ( or would always be watching it's back or something).

Anyway it is a simplification, but could help people in understanding the tribal system from a different angle.

2007-10-05T04:30:00.000-05:00

Alternet post about why the anti-war movement should do everything possible not to go to war with Iran.

Specifically:
"

Three story lines unfolded earlier this month which underscore just how easily manipulated the American people, via the media, are when it comes to the issues of Iran and weapons of mass destruction. In the first, Rear Adm. Mark Fox, a spokesperson for the U.S. military in Iraq, let it be known that U.S. forces had captured a “known operative” of the “Ramazan Corps,” the ostensible branch of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard command responsible for all Iranian operations inside Iraq. This “operative,” one Mahmudi Farhadi, was, according to Fox, the “linchpin” behind the smuggling of “sophisticated weapons” into Iraq by the Quds Force.

We’ve heard this story before. In January of this year a similar raid by U.S. forces in Irbil netted six Iranians, five of whom are still in U.S. custody. Senior American officials let it be known that these Iranians were likewise members of the Quds Force, and included that organization’s operations director. All were tied to the (unspecified) transfer of arms and munitions into Iraq from Iran. The Iranian government claimed, and the Iraqi government confirmed, that the detained Iranians were all attached to a trade mission in Irbil, where they oversaw legitimate commerce between Iran and Iraq along the Kurdish frontier."

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Also the matter of DaqDuq (sorry I do not want to copy the 3 preceding paragraphs as background - you have to read the whole article for background (DaqDuq is a leader of a militia in Iraq supposedly financed by a faction within Iran) :

"And what of Daqduq himself? It seems that his Iraqi sponsor, Qais Khazali, had fallen out of favor with Muqtada al-Sadr over the strategic direction being taken, and sometime in 2006 split away from Sadr’s Mehdi Army, taking some 3,000 fighters with him. In the lawless wild-West environment which dominates Iraq in the post-Saddam era, the formation of splinter militias of this sort is an everyday occurrence. Radical adventurers have historically been drawn to places of conflict, which would explain the presence of Daqduq. And it would not surprise me to find that Qais Khazali had secured funding from extremist elements inside Iran which operate outside the mandate of government, including some from within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard itself. But the notion of Iran and Hizbollah aligning themselves directly with a splinter element like the “Khazali network” is highly unlikely, to say the least."

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But the very next paragraph is the nugget inside this post:

"But fiction often mirrors reality, and in the case of Iran’s Quds Force, the model drawn upon by the U.S. military seems to be none other than America’s own support of anti-Iranian forces, namely the Mujahedin el-Khalk (MEK) operating out of U.S.-controlled bases inside Iraq, and Jundallah, a Baluchi separatist group operating out of Pakistan that the CIA openly acknowledges supporting. Unlike the lack of evidence brought to bear by the U.S. to sustain its claims of Iranian involvement inside Iraq, the Iranian government has captured scores of MEK and Jundallah operatives, along with supporting documents, which substantiate that which the U.S. openly admits: The United States is waging a proxy war against Iran, inside Iran."

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The article does not give a background to MEK. MEK has been in Iraq even during the days of Saddam Hussein.

Doing a Google search on "MEK anti-iran" http://www.google.com/search?q=MEK+anti-iran&sourceid=navclient-ff&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1B3GGGL_en___US215&aq=t

Gives many hits on news reports of the State department declaring MEK a terrorist group.

including this:
http://szamko.gnn.tv/headlines/13526/Iraq_pushes_to_expel_anti_Iran_group
From gnn.tv link:
Summary:

Since the invasion of Iraq, the U.S. has struck up an alliance with the Mujahideen-e-Khalq, an Iranian dissident force which has a long record of committing terrorist atrocities and even collaborating with Saddam Hussein in suppressing the 1991 Shia uprising in southern Iraq.

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The MEK has a long history of anti-Iran and pro-Saddam actions. Which is why the Iraqi government wants MEK to leave.

My personal worry about a group like that is that it can be bought to do another faction's dirty work.

This is likely standard fare in a tribal society... where one tribe is doing things with and against other tribes.

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2007-09-28T07:35:00.000-05:00

An interesting conversation - recorded via transcript by Hugh Hewitt and Tim Weiner.
The writer of "on the Legacy of Ashes", a book about the history of the CIA.

Here is the relevant snippet:

"HH: Their great claim to success if, of course, the coup that removes Mosaddeq, the Iranian prime minister, and restores the Shah to his full authority. Do you, in retrospect, view that as a good action on their part, and a wisely calculated move?

TW: Well look, President Eisenhower authorized it. The operation was not quite as smooth as the CIA represented. It was quite a chaotic business. But in the end, a willing partner of American foreign policy, the Shah of Iran, was installed in power. And you can argue that 25 years of stability resulted. But 29 years of bitterness and instability has followed that. And the Iranian people, the people that we as Americans don’t know a lot about, are not unaware that the United States overthrew their prime minister. And that breeds resentment and fear and hostility.
"

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Which means that Iran has a level of distrust in regards to the USA because of the overthrow of Mosaddeq ~1953.

The point everyone needs to remember is that the middle east has a very long memory of historical events.

This has to rank as another one of the US short term thinking maneuvers...

I.e. get some more stability out of the Shah's regime for a little while. While in the long term Iran will not trust USA

2007-09-27T09:02:00.000-05:00

Here is http://www.ahmadinejad.ir/ blog - -- Yes, the President of Iran has a blog in Farsi and is also translated into English. (click on English).

"In the aforementioned meeting, it was again proven to me that the actual reason for the failure of the U.S. policy in its political field and international relation is their lack of information regarding the world%q%s realities and also enclosure of the decision making people of that country in their own fabricated and false political propaganda."

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Very interesting - as if there is no propaganda in his country???

The whole site has not useful information except for another seeming attempt to humanize the President of Iran.

If he is human after all why would he want to do evil?

Has anyone ever heard of the wolf in sheeps clothing?

2007-09-27T08:54:00.000-05:00

Iranian Blogs -

One about regime change Iranianvoice.org.

"The mullahs saw all this as a confirmation of the Ayatollah Khomeini’s notorious dictum: “America cannot do a damn thing!” Emboldened, they next tried to disrupt the flow of Arab oil through the Persian Gulf by firing at Kuwaiti oil tankers in 1987. With that, the Reagan administration finally moved onto the offensive. Kuwaiti tankers were put under American flag, and a naval task force was dispatched to deal with the Iranian threat. At the next round of probing attacks, the American task force sank nearly half of the Islamic Republic’s navy and dismantled over $1 billion worth of Iranian offshore oil installations. Promptly ordering a halt to his offensive, Khomeini also announced his acceptance of a United Nations Security Council resolution ending Iran’s eight-year war with Iraq. "
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Iran has a history of attacking American interests.

This blog goes over several past conflicts.

Including during the Clinton administration:
"Next came the Clinton administration, which, at first adopting a policy of benign neglect vis-à-vis the mullahs, was shocked out of its torpor by the attack on the U.S. base at Khobar, Saudi Arabia, in which nineteen American servicemen were killed in an operation designed by Iran and carried out by Lebanese and Saudi Shiite militants."

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Hard to substantiate this attack to the Iranian Shiite, but plausible.

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"To this day, Ahmadinejad has never lost an opportunity to reiterate that the Islamic Republic is as committed to fighting Western democracies as it was when it came to power almost three decades ago. Claiming that he is preparing the ground for the return of the Hidden Imam, a messiah-like figure of Shiite lore, Ahmadinejad considers a “clash of civilizations” to be both inevitable and welcome. Of course, he is ready to talk—so long as the Islamic Republic is not required to make any concessions. In a speech in Zanjan over the summer, Ahmadinejad assured his listeners that the United States would never be permitted to create “an American Middle East.” “The new Middle East,” he told the cheering crowd, “will be Islamic.” Nor is Ahmadinejad a lone wolf. Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Meshkini, president of the Assembly of Experts and thus, after the “Supreme Guide,” the regime’s second most senior clerical figure, further clarified the extent of Tehran’s ambitions in a September speech to the assembly. The only legitimate government on earth, proclaimed the ayatollah, is the Islamic Republic, and the entire world, starting with the Muslim nations, must be put under the rule of the “Supreme Guide." "

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There is a definite underecurrent within the mullah leadership to flex its muscles and grow its powerbase.

What better way to do it than to fight the United States?

2007-09-21T13:03:00.000-05:00

Charles Krauthammer article

Re: the Israeli Syrian raid...

"Circumstantial evidence points to this being an attack on some nuclear facility provided by North Korea.
Three days earlier, a freighter flying the North Korean flag docked in the Syrian port city of Tartus with a shipment of "cement." Long way to go for cement. Within days, a top State Department official warned that "there may have been contact between Syria and some secret suppliers for nuclear equipment." Three days later, the six-party meeting on dismantling North Korea's nuclear facilities scheduled for Sept. 19 was suddenly postponed, officially by China, almost certainly at the behest of North Korea."

Why would North Korea and Turkey be the only nations to complain in UN about the air raid?

It is interesting to note the complaint, because North Korea is supposed to be doing the non-nuclear proliferation ...

It is almost like water erosion channels - water goes downhill and does its damage...

When one has dictatorships in different parts of the world, they gravitate together to try and survive and accomplish their goals. (eliminate neigbors etc.)