Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Thursday, June 18, 2009


More peace marches check out payvand news for the latest

This is Payvand news report:
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Photos and Report: Today I Felt Proud to be an Iranian - Today, after a long time I felt truly proud to be an Iranian. I was at yet another peaceful demonstration at Tehran's 7th Tir Square which lasted two and half hours. Again I witnessed thousands of Iranians calmly, peacefully and quietly walking together from 7th Tir Square along the path of Karimkhan-Zand to Kargar Avenue and then ending at Enghelab Square around 7:30 as many people wanted to leave before it got dark! -Syma Sayyah, Tehran 6/17/09

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My thoughts:
It looks like Mousavi is trying to get organized and still getting a lot of energy from the masses check out the link for all the pictures

Monday, June 15, 2009


I disagree with Bulliet:

Bloomberg news
relevant snippet:

Bulliet predicted that the Guardian Council, the election’s supervisory body, with the authority to review the results, will still endorse the outcome within the next week.

Repercussions Predicted

If the protests continue after then, “Khamenei could respond to street unrest by declaring martial law and imposing curfews,” he said.
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The problem is when will the people stop and what happens in the interim, will the army also rise up?

How many people continue to protest?

If the opposition groups make a concerted effort, break through to the clerics (Khameini) then there is a chance a real revolution will happen.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Payvand has an excellent news report from inside Tehran:

It is 4:30pm on Saturday. I knew that something was going to happen. My generation was responsible for the revolution 30 years ago. My office is near ValiAsr near the ministry of interior which is responsible for the elections. At around 4:30pm I noted people walking all in one way. I slowly walked to Vali Asr street. I saw the clashes there. One man with a broken nose bone below eyebrows, and many people who were throwing the ValiAsr heavy sidewalk stones towards the anti riot police line. The police marched forward and the people would all run back and then they stopped and walked back towards the police and throw their heavy stones. The people were shouting death to the dictator. Tear gas was used. I decided to walk back. As I was slowly retreating with the crowd one tear gas charge fell next to my feet. All plastic garbage cans were put on fire by the people in the middle of the street. I had never seen or experienced tear gas. I was studying in US when the revolution happened. I did not breath and kept walking. In a few seconds my face was full of sweat and I could not see and I could not breath. I felt I would lose my conscience and fall down. I tried to go inside a building for help but the door was closed. I walked and went into a home with an open door. There were a few others like me too. The lady in the home told us all to persevere. I asked her to let me wash my face. She said no do not do that. Instead she burned a newspaper near my face. I stayed there for a few minutes and walked back to my office.
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There are definite riot situations all day ... read the whole report.




Payvand.com

pictures of riots in Tehran:

Riots in Tehran:

Check out Tehran Live.org

Due to the 'election' of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.




What does this mean? without a focused political force behind these massive riots, nothing.

In the next few days we have to see if a political force comes out of hiding and presents their will to the ruling theocracy.

Thursday, June 04, 2009

My initial thoughts of Obama's Cairo peace overture to the Israeli-Palestinian question in which Iran has a definite hand in:

There is no middle ground - you can't meet in the middle when one side wants to grow(Israel) like any other country. And the other side wants that same piece of land without interference.

The Israelis and Palestinians want the same piece of land, only one entity can have it.

Unless they can do a time-share (joking here) there is no middle ground.

The next Arab-Israeli war will decide this.

And it very easily can draw in the rest of the world. As I said before WW(insert number here) has started with the Iranian-Hamas-Hezbollah attacking Israel.

This is a very drawn out prequel/setup.

Just like WW2 started in China/Japan and Germany taking Austria, this conflict has a long set up time.

The difference is that this time around the technology is more lethal and with longer ranges.

Maybe Iran is just waiting for a sufficient stockpile of missiles.

Thursday, April 09, 2009

Things did not really change with Obama's new overtures:


"Death to Obama Chants"




A gathering of University of Tehran students minutes ago began forming a chain of human organizers opposite the former Nest of American spies.

A political correspondent of Fars News reported a group of students from University of Tehran student organizations including Students of the Islamic World, the Office of Strengthening Solidarity, Baseej students and other student organizations attended facing the former nest of American spies, to honor thirty years since breaking off diplomatic relations with the imperialistic U.S. government.

Gathered students placed caricatures of the American president on the wall of the spy’s nest and shouted slogans: “Death to Obama” and “Death to U.S. Change.” The protests connect to the biased politics the Americans have shown against Iran.




This is an interesting article in the Politico


Many years ago I loved the "War Games" movie. It showed a military with the forethought to make simulations that would eventually decide that MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) is not actually a valid strategy to lead your country.


But what we have to ask ourselves are we in that kind of a scenario these days?

The latest war game scenario by the Pentagon is to decide if economic moves can set the US off balance. And the most interesting item is that if you put two and two together... while the Chinese and Russians are offsetting the US in the economic arena, the Iran and North Korean nuclear ambitions can add to the uncertainty and increase the economic and strategic uncertainty while fulfilling the respective countries goals (what if they were working in concert?)


Iran and China set $200B in trade

Iran and China
If you give up your nukes will that make all the other entities give up theirs?

To answer that question one must figure out what it actually means to have nukes.

What does it mean to have a nuclear weapon? It means that with one strike you can wipe out a city. Or threaten to wipe out a city. This is too much of a narcotic for a regime that imbibes in power.

Iran has shown that they are willing to repress civil rights in the name of power for their religious state.

In fact it is in line with their religious beliefs to keep a super weapon as a nuke rather than give it up in an ideal world where super weapons are all removed from the power equation.
The last few weeks have been filled with Obama making overtures to Iran, mostly about talking some more... while Iran keeps saying they are making progress on the nuclear front.

Where will this lead? what real options are in Obama quiver?

Can Obama force Iran into giving up their nukes as he is wishing to de nuclearize the world? By leading with his example?

Obama wants world without nukes!

Friday, March 13, 2009


US Jet shoots down Iranian Drone


Interesting development - I thought Obama is creating a new dialogue with Iran???

Thursday, March 12, 2009


Interesting:

Destroyers sent to South China Sea:

US has what is likely a surveillance vessel in the South China Sea which has been shadowed by the Chinese fleet. And in the last couple of days they almost connected (or rather harassed).

You can see from the map that south china sea is south and west of hong kong and actually next to Viet Nam.

Sunday, March 01, 2009

Obama has a decision to make: Iran has enough material to make a nuclear bomb

Is it possible that the Obama administration will make a statement in public about the obvious saber rattling that Iran has exhibited in the last few days (3/1/09)?

What are Obamas choices?

1. Do nothing (most likely)
2. investigate military options - not likely
3. "talk" to Iran, and tell them not to investigate nuclear weapons.


I think that the foreign affairs are definitely a potential minefield for Obama.

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Terror weapons generally do not work, in fact they crystallize opposition. It did not work for Hitler against Britain in WW2. Killed many civilians, but the civilian population only worked together to clean the debris, and steeled themselves to the next attack.

When has terror worked?

I want someone to give me an example in history when it has worked? Without military successes
Iran Focus article about Monkeys taken to Iran - for potential germ warfare experiments?
World War IV has started...

Battles in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon(to come), Somalia ...

All we need is South America and Europe to encompass the world.

Homemade rockets built by Hamas.

How is it that Hamas can't hit Israeli soldiers? All they want is to use the rockets as a terror weapon, just like the German use of the V-1 and V-2 to terrorize The British.