Wednesday, August 27, 2008

While Democrats have their convention, Al-Qaeda keeps trying to influence their groups.

No one has talked about Somalia lately?

Late last week, Shabab fighters overran the strategic southern port city of Kismayo, Somalia's second largest city. The capture of Kismayo capped a yearlong campaign by Shabab to retake territory lost to the Ethiopians in late 2006 and early 2007.

(From Long War journal)

Shahab is a Pro Al-Qaeda fighter group, that is trying to take South Somalia.

This is a global struggle, and there is no letup.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

I wanted to make a quick comment on the current Georgia-Russia crisis.

The initial thought is that it is not always a good idea to counter the other parties moves, as it may backfire.

I am certain that Russia did not anticipate Poland going through with the anti-missile system, while Ukraine also helping with tracking missiles presumably from Russia and/or Iran.

As of today The Russian forces in Georgia have not left yet.

This bluster that Russia is showing has many purposes, including showing strength. But moving Poland and Ukraine to the American ABM camp was likely not one of it's reason for being.

For the US this potential diplomatic crisis can effect Iran as well.

It will show Iran what the US will do when push comes to shove.

The US has very little wiggle room in this conflict, so the response is important.

One cannot very easily move troops into Georgia even if that was possible.

The best one can do is drop some airborne troops within a couple of days.

No heavy units will make it easily.

Turkey would have to let a naval fleet through into the Black sea.

Turkey may come into even more diplomatic power (even though it is also invested in the Iraq conflict through the militant Kurds in their country).