Friday, November 30, 2007

Iranian missile and nuclear proliferation is a vexing problem for the world.

Every country that wants to emerge from the second and third tier power base has to develop missile and nuclear technologies to flex their muscles.

This causes strain from the top tier powers as they do not wish to compete with the newcomer.

If one looks at this issue objectively it is only a matter of time that more and more countries develop the capabilities of missile and nuclear technologies.



With enough money, time and effort one will get there.

A nuclear weapon has been done before, it is not an insurmountable technology.

It is only a matter of time and money.

Thursday, November 29, 2007


Iran's new missile capability can almost reach Kosovo.

In case you were wondering what 2000km means.


The intent of the press releases are to infer that Iran has the capability of reaching Israel and a little further.

Of course range and accuracy are not yet truly known. It is one thing to tout range it is another to produce.

Korea's tests come to mind - especially the ones where their missiles blew up over their launch pad.

Of Course korea did send a few over Japan as well.


Iran's missile capabilities and what they would mean:

FAS info

The Shahab-3: The Iranian Shahab-3 is a single-stage, liquid-fueled, road-mobile, medium-range ballistic missile with a range of approximately 800 miles (1,280 km). A MRBM variant, sometimes called Shahab-4, has a range of more than 1,200 miles (1,930 km).

It is the Ashura which has been recently touted as being capable of 2000km: Space War

Wednesday, November 28, 2007


Kurdistan


This is likely to be the one item that will plunge the Turkey-Iraq-Iran area into war:

If you notice, Kurdistan covers all three current sovereign countries.

This is bound to cause problems.
Party for Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK)

Has been attacked by Iranian Artillery units.

"Iran is creating a lot of problems for the Kurdistan Regional Government [KRG]," said the chief of security police in the nearby town of Soran, who only revealed his first name, Gafar. "Border areas are being shelled every day." The KRG is the governing authority of the predominantly Kurdish region of northern Iraq, or Iraqi Kurdistan.


From AsiaTimes

interesting tidbits:

With or without US support, the PJAK poses a direct challenge to Iran's security. Claiming to have over 4,000 members, it is one of the largest - if not the largest - opposition group in the country. Expert in hit-and-run tactics, PJAK has proven to be a formidable force, launching daring raids and even shooting down an Iranian helicopter in September, according to the New York Times.

PJAK leaders claim to be receiving a steady flow of recruits from Iran's 3.7 million Kurds, who complain of cultural discrimination and of being economically depressed, despite inhabiting oil-rich lands.

Unlike its PKK cousins, the PJAK is not fighting for an independent Kurdish homeland. Rather, it is fighting for regime change - to replace Iran's theocracy with a democratic and highly federalized system that would grant autonomous rights not only to Kurds, but also to Azeri, Baloch and Arab regions of the country.

A major component of its struggle is to empower the Iranian population - and in particular women. According to the group's charter, 12 of the 21 members of the PJAK's elected legislature must be women, as well as three of the seven members of the leadership council. In addition, leaders say 45% of the group are women.


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Notice that the PJAK is trying to subvert the Iranian Kurdish area from within and outside of Iran.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

According to Economist

GDP of Iran 2006: $216.1B

So if $60B is oil revenue then ~25% is oil revenue. (2007 says $256.5B

Both 2006 and 2007 have a (b) which means an estimate ... 2005 actuals say $189.8B
From Bank Markazi data. according to this GDP report the oil revenues were 10% of GDP in 2004.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Iran's oil earnings forecast at 60 billion dollars

Payvand News


Now I need to find the rest of the earnings for Iran...

Need to find some economic numbers on Iran.
We will soon force others to accept a nuclear Iran: Larijani

From Iran Focus

The Islamic Republic will soon force other nations to accept it as a nuclear power, Iran’s former chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said on Monday.

“In the near future, we will force others to accept a nuclear Iran” Larijani was quoted as saying by the state-owned news agency Fars.

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Interesting to note that Larijani has been dismissed.

2 dead as Iranian fighter jet crashes in Sea of Oman

An F-4 crashed.

Sunday, November 11, 2007


Province map of Iran
New age of warfare:

Yes there are guns and bullets- soldiers and leaders.

But the real arena is in the mind - the age of the media.

The Internet, print and video arenas.

Here is where the new wars will be won or lost.


Yes, there will be regular bullet battles ... but the new arena is the mind - the media that pervades and seeps into the mind.


This is why this blog is here: "To counteract the media fallacies -- the group think methods are false. What we need are facts, strategy, and effective action in in a new age."

Thursday, November 08, 2007

Prepare yourselves for the next phase in warfare:


I do not believe Iran will fight the US straight on...


Hidden attacks in Persian Gulf...

Attacks around the world.

In US


timed for the media to digest and take in the new order.



It would not even take a full sized nuke.


conventional weapons using asymmetric warfare can cause enough damage to create problems for the US in media circles.

Iranian conventional forces roundup

CIA roundup


Qom (as you see right next to tehran practically... is a holy city for Shiite Muslims - 8th century.

As in Encyclopedia.com: Qom City in w central Iran. The burial place of Fatima, her shrine is a place of pilgrimage for Shi'ite Muslims. Industries: textiles, rugs, pottery, glass, shoes. Pop. (2002) 893,500.
Ok eh, took a little hiatus - too busy at work and all.

But I will get back to researching the middle eastern hotspot "Iran".


Everybody has their bogeyman - and today it is $100 oil (per barrel that is).


I.e. let us drill in the US so we do not have to be as dependent on the oil strong men of the world (Chavez, Ahmadinejad and Putin)


I'm not sure I would classify Putin in the same cateory, as he is likely only trying to make some money, and preserve some of his political capital at home (Russia).


Wheras one can make an argument that Chavez and Ahmadinejad are not in it for the money - they are in it for the power.